EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional
UpdatedLatest production refresh
Match ProbabilityxGorithm model
17.3%Aston Villa
24.3%Draw
58.4%Arsenal
Model Expected Goals
xG = Expected Goals. It estimates the quality of scoring chances a team is expected to create. It is not a score prediction.
0.84Aston Villa
–
1.801Arsenal
The xGorithm View
Strong model signals for this fixture.
Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.
Total Goals Under 3.5
Total Goals Model
72.7%
Why the model likes it: Compact Goals Intensity v2 + Team Strength v2 scoring share Evidence sample: 38 subject / 38 opponent.
Arsenal Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots Model
78.3%
Why the model likes it: Gate 4 SEASON_MATCHUP_POISSON projected shots 12.31 Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.
Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.
Game Profile
Headline leans
Goals
Over 1.5 (2+)
74.0%
BTTS
No strong lean
Corners
Over 7.5 (8+)
73.3%
Cards
Over 2.5 (3+)
71.1%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
84.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)94.6%
Over 2.5 (3+)84.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)68.2%
Over 4.5 (5+)49.6%
Over 5.5 (6+)32.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
79.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)79.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)47.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)21.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)7.7%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
73.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)94.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)73.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)62.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)50.4%
Over 12.5 (13+)39.0%
Over 13.5 (14+)28.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)20.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)13.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
71.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)88.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)71.3%
Over 3.5 (4+)50.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)31.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)16.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
71.4%
Over 7.5 (8+)81.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)71.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)59.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)47.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)35.4%
Over 12.5 (13+)25.1%
Over 13.5 (14+)16.9%
Over 14.5 (15+)10.8%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
83.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)53.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)27.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
71.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)86.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)71.5%
Over 4.5 (5+)53.5%
Over 5.5 (6+)36.0%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.8%
Over 3.5 (4+)16.0%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
78.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)96.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)92.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)86.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)78.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)68.4%
Over 11.5 (12+)57.3%
Over 12.5 (13+)45.9%
Over 13.5 (14+)35.1%
Over 14.5 (15+)25.7%
Over 15.5 (16+)17.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
80.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)92.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)80.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)62.2%
Over 4.5 (5+)42.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)26.2%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
82.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.5%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.2%
Over 9.5 (10+)72.8%
Over 10.5 (11+)61.7%
Over 11.5 (12+)50.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)38.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)28.4%
Over 14.5 (15+)19.9%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
84.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)94.6%
Over 2.5 (3+)84.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)68.2%
Over 4.5 (5+)49.6%
Over 5.5 (6+)32.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
79.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)79.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)47.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)21.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)7.7%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
73.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)94.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)73.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)62.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)50.4%
Over 12.5 (13+)39.0%
Over 13.5 (14+)28.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)20.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)13.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
71.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)88.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)71.3%
Over 3.5 (4+)50.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)31.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)16.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
71.4%
Over 7.5 (8+)81.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)71.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)59.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)47.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)35.4%
Over 12.5 (13+)25.1%
Over 13.5 (14+)16.9%
Over 14.5 (15+)10.8%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
83.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)53.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)27.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
71.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)86.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)71.5%
Over 4.5 (5+)53.5%
Over 5.5 (6+)36.0%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.8%
Over 3.5 (4+)16.0%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
78.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)96.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)92.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)86.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)78.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)68.4%
Over 11.5 (12+)57.3%
Over 12.5 (13+)45.9%
Over 13.5 (14+)35.1%
Over 14.5 (15+)25.7%
Over 15.5 (16+)17.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
80.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)92.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)80.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)62.2%
Over 4.5 (5+)42.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)26.2%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
82.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.5%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.2%
Over 9.5 (10+)72.8%
Over 10.5 (11+)61.7%
Over 11.5 (12+)50.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)38.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)28.4%
Over 14.5 (15+)19.9%
Player Intelligence
Confirmed / likely starters
No eligible player intelligence.
Build
Your choice
Choose your risk
How brave are we feeling?
xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.
PARK THE BUS
Low risk. Keep it tidy.
2.05xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
41.8%
1
Over 2.5 (3+)Arsenal · Team Corners
86.4%
2
Over 8.5 (9+)Arsenal · Team Fouls
82.2%
3
Over 2.5 (3+)Arsenal · Team Shots on Target
80.2%
4
Aston Villa or ArsenalDouble Chance
75.7%
GAME MANAGEMENT
Controlled. A little ambition.
2.87xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
28.7%
1
Over 1.5 (2+)Arsenal · Team Shots on Target
92.8%
2
Aston Villa or ArsenalDouble Chance
75.7%
3
Over 3.5 (4+)Aston Villa · Team Corners
68.2%
4
Over 1.5 (2+)Arsenal · Team Cards
61.8%
THE PRESS
Higher tempo. More moving parts.
5.82xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
11.0%
1
Aston Villa or ArsenalDouble Chance
75.7%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
72.7%
3
Over 1.5 (2+)Arsenal · Team Cards
61.8%
4
Over 8.5 (9+)Match Corners
61.0%
5
Over 11.5 (12+)Arsenal · Team Shots
57.3%
ALL OUT ATTACK
Aggressive. Now we’re swinging.
10.27xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
6.8%
1
Over 4.5 (5+)Arsenal · Team Corners
53.5%
2
NoBTTS
52.6%
3
Over 3.5 (4+)Aston Villa · Team Shots on Target
50.4%
4
Over 3.5 (4+)Match Cards
50.2%
THE END GAME
Big return. Everything has to click.
21.78xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
1.6%
1
Arsenal or DrawDouble Chance
82.7%
2
Over 3.5 (4+)Aston Villa · Team Corners
68.2%
3
Over 3.5 (4+)Arsenal · Team Shots on Target
62.2%
4
Over 1.5 (2+)Arsenal · Team Cards
61.8%
5
Over 10.5 (11+)Arsenal · Team Fouls
61.7%
6
Over 8.5 (9+)Match Corners
61.0%
7
NoBTTS
52.6%
8
Over 3.5 (4+)Match Cards
50.2%
Not bookmaker odds.
The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.
Your bet. Our intelligence.
Pick the outcomes you like.
Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.
Strong signalsxGorithm View
1X2Match market
BTTSMatch market
Double ChanceMatch market
Draw No BetMatch market
Match CardsMatch market
Match CornersMatch market
Total GoalsMatch market
ArsenalTeam Cards
ArsenalTeam Corners
ArsenalTeam Fouls
ArsenalTeam Goals
ArsenalTeam Shots
ArsenalTeam Shots on Target
Aston VillaTeam Cards
Aston VillaTeam Corners
Aston VillaTeam Fouls
Aston VillaTeam Goals
Aston VillaTeam Shots
Aston VillaTeam Shots on Target
No eligible selections in this section.
Your selections0 legs
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ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY
Select a leg to start building.
Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.