The xGorithm · Chelsea v Brighton

‹ Fixture Centre

Match Intelligence

Premier LeaguePre-match

CHE

Chelsea

BRI

Brighton

EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional

UpdatedLatest production refresh

Match ProbabilityxGorithm model

35.1%Chelsea

23.7%Draw

41.2%Brighton

Model Expected Goals

1.386Chelsea

–

1.517Brighton

The xGorithm View

Strong model signals for this fixture.

Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.

Chelsea Over 11.5 (12+)

Team Shots Model

72.5%

Why the model likes it: Gate 4 SEASON_MATCHUP_POISSON projected shots 13.83 Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.

Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.

Game Profile

Headline leans

Goals

Over 1.5 (2+)

78.6%

BTTS

No strong lean

Corners

Over 7.5 (8+)

77.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 (3+)

81.0%

Team Intelligence

Full supported ladders

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Goals

75.0%

Over 0.5 (1+)75.0%

Over 1.5 (2+)40.3%

Over 2.5 (3+)16.3%

Over 3.5 (4+)

Team Corners

81.3%

Over 1.5 (2+)97.6%

Over 2.5 (3+)92.0%

Over 3.5 (4+)81.3%

Over 4.5 (5+)66.3%

Over 5.5 (6+)49.4%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Cards

86.0%

Over 0.5 (1+)86.0%

Over 1.5 (2+)58.5%

Over 2.5 (3+)31.4%

Over 3.5 (4+)13.7%

Over 11.5 (12+)

Team Shots

72.5%

Over 6.5 (7+)98.4%

Over 7.5 (8+)96.5%

Over 8.5 (9+)93.2%

Over 9.5 (10+)88.2%

Over 10.5 (11+)81.2%

Over 11.5 (12+)72.5%

Over 12.5 (13+)62.4%

Over 13.5 (14+)51.7%

Over 14.5 (15+)41.1%

Over 15.5 (16+)31.4%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Shots on Target

81.5%

Over 1.5 (2+)93.4%

Over 2.5 (3+)81.5%

Over 3.5 (4+)64.1%

Over 4.5 (5+)44.9%

Over 5.5 (6+)28.1%

Over 8.5 (9+)

Team Fouls

70.8%

Over 7.5 (8+)81.2%

Over 8.5 (9+)70.8%

Over 9.5 (10+)58.9%

Over 10.5 (11+)46.5%

Over 11.5 (12+)34.7%

Over 12.5 (13+)24.6%

Over 13.5 (14+)16.5%

Over 14.5 (15+)10.5%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Goals

78.1%

Over 0.5 (1+)78.1%

Over 1.5 (2+)44.8%

Over 2.5 (3+)19.5%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Corners

80.4%

Over 1.5 (2+)92.9%

Over 2.5 (3+)80.4%

Over 3.5 (4+)62.5%

Over 4.5 (5+)43.2%

Over 5.5 (6+)26.5%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Cards

90.8%

Over 0.5 (1+)90.8%

Over 1.5 (2+)69.0%

Over 2.5 (3+)42.8%

Over 3.5 (4+)21.9%

Over 7.5 (8+)

Team Shots

85.6%

Over 6.5 (7+)92.1%

Over 7.5 (8+)85.6%

Over 8.5 (9+)76.7%

Over 9.5 (10+)65.8%

Over 10.5 (11+)53.8%

Over 11.5 (12+)41.9%

Over 12.5 (13+)31.0%

Over 13.5 (14+)21.7%

Over 14.5 (15+)14.5%

Over 15.5 (16+)9.2%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Shots on Target

77.8%

Over 1.5 (2+)91.6%

Over 2.5 (3+)77.8%

Over 3.5 (4+)58.8%

Over 4.5 (5+)39.3%

Over 5.5 (6+)23.2%

Over 8.5 (9+)

Team Fouls

84.8%

Over 7.5 (8+)91.2%

Over 8.5 (9+)84.8%

Over 9.5 (10+)76.2%

Over 10.5 (11+)65.8%

Over 11.5 (12+)54.4%

Over 12.5 (13+)42.9%

Over 13.5 (14+)32.4%

Over 14.5 (15+)23.2%

Build

Your choice

Choose your risk

How brave are we feeling?

xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.

PARK THE BUS

Low risk.
Keep it tidy.

2.03x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

42.2%

Over 0.5 (1+) Chelsea · Team Cards

86.0%

Over 7.5 (8+) Brighton · Team Shots

85.6%

Over 7.5 (8+) Match Corners

77.5%

Chelsea or Brighton Double Chance

76.3%

GAME MANAGEMENT

Controlled.
A little ambition.

2.86x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

28.7%

Over 2.5 (3+) Match Cards

81.0%

Chelsea or Brighton Double Chance

76.3%

Over 11.5 (12+) Chelsea · Team Shots

72.5%

Over 8.5 (9+) Match Corners

66.1%

THE PRESS

Higher tempo.
More moving parts.

4.69x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

14.0%

Chelsea or Brighton Double Chance

76.3%

Over 1.5 (2+) Brighton · Team Cards

69.0%

Over 4.5 (5+) Chelsea · Team Corners

66.3%

Over 9.5 (10+) Brighton · Team Shots

65.8%

Over 10.5 (11+) Brighton · Team Fouls

65.8%

ALL OUT ATTACK

Aggressive.
Now we’re swinging.

9.41x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

5.1%

Over 9.5 (10+) Brighton · Team Shots

65.8%

Brighton or Draw Double Chance

64.9%

Over 3.5 (4+) Match Cards

63.3%

Over 3.5 (4+) Brighton · Team Corners

62.5%

Yes BTTS

58.5%

Over 1.5 (2+) Chelsea · Team Cards

58.5%

THE END GAME

Big return.
Everything has to click.

21.81x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

1.5%

Over 4.5 (5+) Chelsea · Team Corners

66.3%

Over 3.5 (4+) Chelsea · Team Shots on Target

64.1%

Over 3.5 (4+) Match Cards

63.3%

Over 3.5 (4+) Brighton · Team Corners

62.5%

Chelsea or Draw Double Chance

58.8%

Over 3.5 (4+) Brighton · Team Shots on Target

58.8%

Yes BTTS

58.5%

Over 1.5 (2+) Chelsea · Team Cards

58.5%

Not bookmaker odds. The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.

Your bet. Our intelligence.

Pick the outcomes you like.

Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.

Strong signals xGorithm View

1X2 Match market

BTTS Match market

Double Chance Match market

Draw No Bet Match market

Match Cards Match market

Match Corners Match market

Total Goals Match market

Brighton Team Cards

Brighton Team Corners

Brighton Team Fouls

Brighton Team Goals

Brighton Team Shots

Brighton Team Shots on Target

Chelsea Team Cards

Chelsea Team Corners

Chelsea Team Fouls

Chelsea Team Goals

Chelsea Team Shots

Chelsea Team Shots on Target

Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper Saves

Bart Verbruggen Player Fouls

Bart Verbruggen Player Fouls Won

Bart Verbruggen Player Passes

Bart Verbruggen Player Shots

Bart Verbruggen Player SOT

Pascal Groß Player Fouls

Pascal Groß Player Fouls Won

Pascal Groß Player Passes

Pascal Groß Player Shots

Pascal Groß Player SOT

Pascal Groß Player Tackles

Your selections 0 legs

— ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY

Select a leg to start building.

Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.

Strong model signals for this fixture.

Game Profile

Team Intelligence

Team Intelligence

Player Intelligence

Build

How brave are we feeling?

Pick the outcomes you like.