EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional
UpdatedLatest production refresh
Match ProbabilityxGorithm model
32.0%Crystal Palace
22.9%Draw
45.2%Manchester City
Model Expected Goals
xG = Expected Goals. It estimates the quality of scoring chances a team is expected to create. It is not a score prediction.
1.306Crystal Palace
–
1.583Manchester City
The xGorithm View
No headline View for this fixture.
Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.
NO STRONG VIEWThe model still has full Match Intelligence below, but nothing clears the headline View rules for this fixture.
Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.
Game Profile
Headline leans
Goals
Over 1.5 (2+)
78.4%
BTTS
No strong lean
Corners
Over 7.5 (8+)
74.5%
Cards
Over 2.5 (3+)
73.2%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
72.9%
Over 0.5 (1+)72.9%
Over 1.5 (2+)37.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)14.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
81.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.9%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.7%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.9%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
83.7%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)54.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)27.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)11.1%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
76.1%
Over 6.5 (7+)95.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)91.2%
Over 8.5 (9+)84.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)76.1%
Over 10.5 (11+)65.7%
Over 11.5 (12+)54.3%
Over 12.5 (13+)42.9%
Over 13.5 (14+)32.3%
Over 14.5 (15+)23.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)15.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
75.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)90.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)75.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)55.3%
Over 4.5 (5+)35.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)20.4%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.5%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.2%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.0%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.1%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.4%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.6%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.8%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
79.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)79.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)47.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)21.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
76.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)96.7%
Over 2.5 (3+)89.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)76.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)60.0%
Over 5.5 (6+)42.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
86.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)86.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)59.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)32.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)14.1%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
76.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)95.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)91.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)84.9%
Over 9.5 (10+)76.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)65.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)54.5%
Over 12.5 (13+)43.1%
Over 13.5 (14+)32.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)23.3%
Over 15.5 (16+)16.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
81.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.9%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.7%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.9%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
72.9%
Over 0.5 (1+)72.9%
Over 1.5 (2+)37.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)14.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
81.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.9%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.7%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.9%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
83.7%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)54.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)27.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)11.1%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
76.1%
Over 6.5 (7+)95.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)91.2%
Over 8.5 (9+)84.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)76.1%
Over 10.5 (11+)65.7%
Over 11.5 (12+)54.3%
Over 12.5 (13+)42.9%
Over 13.5 (14+)32.3%
Over 14.5 (15+)23.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)15.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
75.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)90.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)75.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)55.3%
Over 4.5 (5+)35.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)20.4%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.5%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.2%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.0%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.1%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.4%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.6%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.8%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
79.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)79.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)47.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)21.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
76.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)96.7%
Over 2.5 (3+)89.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)76.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)60.0%
Over 5.5 (6+)42.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
86.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)86.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)59.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)32.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)14.1%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
76.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)95.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)91.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)84.9%
Over 9.5 (10+)76.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)65.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)54.5%
Over 12.5 (13+)43.1%
Over 13.5 (14+)32.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)23.3%
Over 15.5 (16+)16.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
81.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.3%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.9%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.7%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.9%
Player Intelligence
Confirmed / likely starters
Dean Henderson
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE88.7%
Over 19.5 (20+) · Player Passes87.9%
Over 2.5 (3+) · Goalkeeper Saves55.4%
Antoine Semenyo
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE91.8%
Over 19.5 (20+) · Player Passes71.8%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Shots66.9%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Fouls59.2%
Build
Your choice
Choose your risk
How brave are we feeling?
xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.
PARK THE BUS
Low risk. Keep it tidy.
2.02xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
44.5%
1
Crystal Palace or Manchester CityDouble Chance
77.1%
2
Over 3.5 (4+)Manchester City · Team Corners
76.7%
3
Over 9.5 (10+)Manchester City · Team Shots
76.3%
GAME MANAGEMENT
Controlled. A little ambition.
2.86xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
28.7%
1
Over 3.5 (4+)Manchester City · Team Corners
76.7%
2
Over 9.5 (10+)Crystal Palace · Team Shots
76.1%
3
Over 8.5 (9+)Crystal Palace · Team Fouls
74.5%
4
Manchester City or DrawDouble Chance
68.0%
THE PRESS
Higher tempo. More moving parts.
5.01xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
10.7%
1
Over 1.5 (2+)Crystal Palace · Team Shots on Target
90.3%
2
Over 2.5 (3+)Match Cards
73.2%
3
Manchester City or DrawDouble Chance
68.0%
4
Under 3.5Total Goals
67.2%
5
Over 8.5 (9+)Manchester City · Team Fouls
66.7%
6
Over 4.5 (5+)Manchester City · Team Corners
60.0%
ALL OUT ATTACK
Aggressive. Now we’re swinging.
9.40xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
6.5%
1
Over 8.5 (9+)Manchester City · Team Fouls
66.7%
2
Over 3.5 (4+)Crystal Palace · Team Corners
63.9%
3
Over 3.5 (4+)Crystal Palace · Team Shots on Target
55.3%
4
Crystal Palace or DrawDouble Chance
54.8%
5
Over 1.5 (2+)Crystal Palace · Team Cards
54.2%
THE END GAME
Big return. Everything has to click.
21.77xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
1.5%
1
Manchester City or DrawDouble Chance
68.0%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
67.2%
3
Over 8.5 (9+)Manchester City · Team Fouls
66.7%
4
Over 3.5 (4+)Crystal Palace · Team Corners
63.9%
5
Over 4.5 (5+)Manchester City · Team Corners
60.0%
6
Over 1.5 (2+)Manchester City · Team Cards
59.0%
7
Over 11.5 (12+)Manchester City · Team Shots
54.5%
8
Over 11.5 (12+)Crystal Palace · Team Shots
54.3%
Not bookmaker odds.
The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.
Your bet. Our intelligence.
Pick the outcomes you like.
Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.
No headline View selections for this fixture. The full market browser is still available below.
Strong signalsxGorithm View
NO STRONG VIEW for this fixture.
1X2Match market
BTTSMatch market
Double ChanceMatch market
Draw No BetMatch market
Match CardsMatch market
Match CornersMatch market
Total GoalsMatch market
Crystal PalaceTeam Cards
Crystal PalaceTeam Corners
Crystal PalaceTeam Fouls
Crystal PalaceTeam Goals
Crystal PalaceTeam Shots
Crystal PalaceTeam Shots on Target
Manchester CityTeam Cards
Manchester CityTeam Corners
Manchester CityTeam Fouls
Manchester CityTeam Goals
Manchester CityTeam Shots
Manchester CityTeam Shots on Target
Antoine SemenyoPlayer Fouls
Antoine SemenyoPlayer Fouls Won
Antoine SemenyoPlayer Passes
Antoine SemenyoPlayer Shots
Antoine SemenyoPlayer SOT
Antoine SemenyoPlayer Tackles
Dean HendersonGoalkeeper Saves
Dean HendersonPlayer Fouls
Dean HendersonPlayer Fouls Won
Dean HendersonPlayer Passes
Dean HendersonPlayer Shots
Dean HendersonPlayer SOT
Your selections0 legs
—
ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY
Select a leg to start building.
Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.