The xGorithm · Leeds v Brentford

‹ Fixture Centre

Match Intelligence

Premier LeaguePre-match

LEE

Leeds

BRE

Brentford

EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional

UpdatedLatest production refresh

Match ProbabilityxGorithm model

42.9%Leeds

25.5%Draw

31.6%Brentford

Model Expected Goals

1.525Leeds

–

1.271Brentford

The xGorithm View

Strong model signals for this fixture.

Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.

Leeds Over 11.5 (12+)

Team Shots Model

74.8%

Why the model likes it: Gate 4 SEASON_MATCHUP_POISSON projected shots 14.10 Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.

Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.

Game Profile

Headline leans

Goals

Over 1.5 (2+)

76.8%

BTTS

No strong lean

Corners

Over 7.5 (8+)

75.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 (3+)

70.6%

Team Intelligence

Full supported ladders

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Goals

78.2%

Over 0.5 (1+)78.2%

Over 1.5 (2+)45.0%

Over 2.5 (3+)19.7%

Over 3.5 (4+)

Team Corners

76.2%

Over 1.5 (2+)96.6%

Over 2.5 (3+)89.1%

Over 3.5 (4+)76.2%

Over 4.5 (5+)59.4%

Over 5.5 (6+)41.9%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Cards

80.0%

Over 0.5 (1+)80.0%

Over 1.5 (2+)47.7%

Over 2.5 (3+)21.8%

Over 3.5 (4+)8.0%

Over 11.5 (12+)

Team Shots

74.8%

Over 6.5 (7+)98.7%

Over 7.5 (8+)97.0%

Over 8.5 (9+)94.1%

Over 9.5 (10+)89.5%

Over 10.5 (11+)83.1%

Over 11.5 (12+)74.8%

Over 12.5 (13+)65.1%

Over 13.5 (14+)54.6%

Over 14.5 (15+)44.0%

Over 15.5 (16+)34.0%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Shots on Target

81.6%

Over 1.5 (2+)93.4%

Over 2.5 (3+)81.6%

Over 3.5 (4+)64.3%

Over 4.5 (5+)45.1%

Over 5.5 (6+)28.2%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Goals

71.9%

Over 0.5 (1+)71.9%

Over 1.5 (2+)36.3%

Over 2.5 (3+)13.6%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Corners

83.1%

Over 1.5 (2+)94.1%

Over 2.5 (3+)83.1%

Over 3.5 (4+)66.5%

Over 4.5 (5+)47.6%

Over 5.5 (6+)30.4%

Over 0.5 (1+)

Team Cards

87.0%

Over 0.5 (1+)87.0%

Over 1.5 (2+)60.5%

Over 2.5 (3+)33.5%

Over 3.5 (4+)15.1%

Over 7.5 (8+)

Team Shots

84.1%

Over 6.5 (7+)91.1%

Over 7.5 (8+)84.1%

Over 8.5 (9+)74.6%

Over 9.5 (10+)63.3%

Over 10.5 (11+)51.1%

Over 11.5 (12+)39.2%

Over 12.5 (13+)28.5%

Over 13.5 (14+)19.7%

Over 14.5 (15+)12.9%

Over 15.5 (16+)8.0%

Over 2.5 (3+)

Team Shots on Target

73.5%

Over 1.5 (2+)89.5%

Over 2.5 (3+)73.5%

Over 3.5 (4+)53.1%

Over 4.5 (5+)33.7%

Over 5.5 (6+)18.8%

Over 8.5 (9+)

Team Fouls

78.0%

Over 7.5 (8+)86.6%

Over 8.5 (9+)78.0%

Over 9.5 (10+)67.5%

Over 10.5 (11+)55.7%

Over 11.5 (12+)43.8%

Over 12.5 (13+)32.7%

Over 13.5 (14+)23.2%

Over 14.5 (15+)15.6%

Build

Your choice

Choose your risk

How brave are we feeling?

xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.

PARK THE BUS

Low risk.
Keep it tidy.

2.02x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

44.3%

Over 6.5 (7+) Match Corners

85.3%

Over 11.5 (12+) Leeds · Team Shots

74.8%

Over 2.5 (3+) Match Cards

70.6%

GAME MANAGEMENT

Controlled.
A little ambition.

2.87x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

28.6%

Over 3.5 (4+) Leeds · Team Corners

76.2%

Leeds or Brentford Double Chance

74.5%

Over 2.5 (3+) Brentford · Team Shots on Target

73.5%

Over 2.5 (3+) Match Cards

70.6%

THE PRESS

Higher tempo.
More moving parts.

5.38x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

14.3%

Over 3.5 (4+) Brentford · Team Corners

66.5%

Over 3.5 (4+) Leeds · Team Shots on Target

64.3%

Over 1.5 (2+) Brentford · Team Cards

60.5%

Brentford or Draw Double Chance

57.1%

ALL OUT ATTACK

Aggressive.
Now we’re swinging.

11.75x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

4.0%

Over 8.5 (9+) Match Corners

63.7%

Over 9.5 (10+) Brentford · Team Shots

63.3%

Over 1.5 (2+) Brentford · Team Cards

60.5%

Over 4.5 (5+) Leeds · Team Corners

59.4%

Brentford or Draw Double Chance

57.1%

Over 10.5 (11+) Brentford · Team Fouls

55.7%

THE END GAME

Big return.
Everything has to click.

19.01x return proxy

Adjusted joint model probability Chance of every leg landing together

2.0%

Over 8.5 (9+) Leeds · Team Fouls

67.2%

Over 3.5 (4+) Leeds · Team Shots on Target

64.3%

Over 1.5 (2+) Brentford · Team Cards

60.5%

Over 4.5 (5+) Leeds · Team Corners

59.4%

Brentford or Draw Double Chance

57.1%

Over 2.5 (3+) Total Goals

52.9%

Over 9.5 (10+) Match Corners

50.9%

Not bookmaker odds. The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.

Your bet. Our intelligence.

Pick the outcomes you like.

Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.

Strong signals xGorithm View

1X2 Match market

BTTS Match market

Double Chance Match market

Draw No Bet Match market

Match Cards Match market

Match Corners Match market

Total Goals Match market

Brentford Team Cards

Brentford Team Corners

Brentford Team Fouls

Brentford Team Goals

Brentford Team Shots

Brentford Team Shots on Target

Leeds Team Cards

Leeds Team Corners

Leeds Team Fouls

Leeds Team Goals

Leeds Team Shots

Leeds Team Shots on Target

Caoimhin Kelleher Goalkeeper Saves

Caoimhin Kelleher Player Fouls

Caoimhin Kelleher Player Fouls Won

Caoimhin Kelleher Player Passes

Caoimhin Kelleher Player Shots

Caoimhin Kelleher Player SOT

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Fouls

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Fouls Won

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Passes

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Shots

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player SOT

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Tackles

Ethan Ampadu Player Fouls

Ethan Ampadu Player Fouls Won

Ethan Ampadu Player Passes

Ethan Ampadu Player Shots

Ethan Ampadu Player SOT

Ethan Ampadu Player Tackles

Igor Thiago Player Fouls

Igor Thiago Player Fouls Won

Igor Thiago Player Passes

Igor Thiago Player Shots

Igor Thiago Player SOT

Igor Thiago Player Tackles

Michael Kayode Player Fouls

Michael Kayode Player Fouls Won

Michael Kayode Player Passes

Michael Kayode Player Shots

Michael Kayode Player SOT

Michael Kayode Player Tackles

Nathan Collins Player Fouls

Nathan Collins Player Fouls Won

Nathan Collins Player Passes

Nathan Collins Player Shots

Nathan Collins Player SOT

Nathan Collins Player Tackles

Your selections 0 legs

— ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY

Select a leg to start building.

Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.

Strong model signals for this fixture.

Game Profile

Team Intelligence

Team Intelligence

Player Intelligence

Build

How brave are we feeling?

Pick the outcomes you like.