EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional
UpdatedLatest production refresh
Match ProbabilityxGorithm model
56.8%Liverpool
23.1%Draw
20.1%Nottingham Forest
Model Expected Goals
xG = Expected Goals. It estimates the quality of scoring chances a team is expected to create. It is not a score prediction.
1.79Liverpool
–
0.965Nottingham Forest
The xGorithm View
Strong model signals for this fixture.
Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.
Liverpool Over 13.5 (14+)
Team Shots Model
70.7%
Why the model likes it: Gate 4 SEASON_MATCHUP_POISSON projected shots 15.78 Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.
Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.
Game Profile
Headline leans
Goals
Over 1.5 (2+)
76.1%
BTTS
No strong lean
Corners
Over 7.5 (8+)
79.0%
Cards
No strong lean
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
83.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)53.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)26.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
82.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)97.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)92.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)82.5%
Over 4.5 (5+)67.9%
Over 5.5 (6+)51.2%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
77.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)77.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)44.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)19.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)6.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)
Team Shots
70.7%
Over 6.5 (7+)99.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)98.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)97.5%
Over 9.5 (10+)95.2%
Over 10.5 (11+)91.5%
Over 11.5 (12+)86.2%
Over 12.5 (13+)79.2%
Over 13.5 (14+)70.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)61.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)51.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
85.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)85.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)69.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)51.4%
Over 5.5 (6+)33.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.6%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.2%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
81.1%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.2%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.4%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)15.7%
Over 7.5 (8+)
Team Shots
84.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)91.3%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)75.0%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.7%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.7%
Over 12.5 (13+)29.0%
Over 13.5 (14+)20.1%
Over 14.5 (15+)13.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)8.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
72.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)88.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)72.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)51.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)32.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)17.6%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
77.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)86.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)77.2%
Over 9.5 (10+)66.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)54.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)42.6%
Over 12.5 (13+)31.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)22.3%
Over 14.5 (15+)14.9%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
83.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)83.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)53.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)26.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
82.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)97.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)92.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)82.5%
Over 4.5 (5+)67.9%
Over 5.5 (6+)51.2%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
77.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)77.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)44.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)19.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)6.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)
Team Shots
70.7%
Over 6.5 (7+)99.5%
Over 7.5 (8+)98.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)97.5%
Over 9.5 (10+)95.2%
Over 10.5 (11+)91.5%
Over 11.5 (12+)86.2%
Over 12.5 (13+)79.2%
Over 13.5 (14+)70.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)61.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)51.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
85.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)85.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)69.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)51.4%
Over 5.5 (6+)33.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.6%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.6%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.3%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.1%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.2%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Corners
81.1%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)81.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)63.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)44.2%
Over 5.5 (6+)27.4%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.5%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.5%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.4%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.4%
Over 3.5 (4+)15.7%
Over 7.5 (8+)
Team Shots
84.3%
Over 6.5 (7+)91.3%
Over 7.5 (8+)84.3%
Over 8.5 (9+)75.0%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.7%
Over 10.5 (11+)51.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.7%
Over 12.5 (13+)29.0%
Over 13.5 (14+)20.1%
Over 14.5 (15+)13.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)8.2%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
72.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)88.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)72.2%
Over 3.5 (4+)51.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)32.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)17.6%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
77.2%
Over 7.5 (8+)86.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)77.2%
Over 9.5 (10+)66.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)54.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)42.6%
Over 12.5 (13+)31.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)22.3%
Over 14.5 (15+)14.9%
Player Intelligence
Confirmed / likely starters
Matz Sels
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE88.7%
Over 19.5 (20+) · Player Passes83.8%
Over 2.5 (3+) · Goalkeeper Saves55.4%
Dominik Szoboszlai
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE91.8%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Fouls76.9%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Tackles72.8%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Shots66.6%
Cody Gakpo
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE88.7%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Shots75.3%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Fouls75.0%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Fouls Won65.2%
Virgil van Dijk
LINEUP PENDING
START CHANCE99.0%
Over 49.5 (50+) · Player Passes62.8%
Over 0.5 (1+) · Player Tackles55.7%
Build
Your choice
Choose your risk
How brave are we feeling?
xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.
PARK THE BUS
Low risk. Keep it tidy.
2.02xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
42.6%
1
Over 6.5 (7+)Match Corners
87.7%
2
Over 7.5 (8+)Nottingham Forest · Team Shots
84.3%
3
Over 8.5 (9+)Nottingham Forest · Team Fouls
77.2%
4
Liverpool or Nottingham ForestDouble Chance
76.9%
GAME MANAGEMENT
Controlled. A little ambition.
2.77xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
31.9%
1
Over 7.5 (8+)Match Corners
79.0%
2
Over 0.5 (1+)Liverpool · Team Cards
77.6%
3
Liverpool or Nottingham ForestDouble Chance
76.9%
4
Under 3.5Total Goals
70.2%
THE PRESS
Higher tempo. More moving parts.
4.70xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
17.8%
1
Liverpool or Nottingham ForestDouble Chance
76.9%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
70.2%
3
Over 1.5 (2+)Nottingham Forest · Team Cards
61.4%
4
Over 9.5 (10+)Match Corners
55.6%
ALL OUT ATTACK
Aggressive. Now we’re swinging.
10.21xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
5.1%
1
Liverpool or Nottingham ForestDouble Chance
76.9%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
70.2%
3
Over 2.5 (3+)Match Cards
69.2%
4
Over 9.5 (10+)Match Corners
55.6%
5
Over 10.5 (11+)Nottingham Forest · Team Fouls
54.6%
6
Over 3.5 (4+)Nottingham Forest · Team Shots on Target
51.4%
THE END GAME
Big return. Everything has to click.
21.93xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
1.8%
1
Liverpool or Nottingham ForestDouble Chance
76.9%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
70.2%
3
Over 9.5 (10+)Match Corners
55.6%
4
Over 10.5 (11+)Nottingham Forest · Team Fouls
54.6%
5
Over 3.5 (4+)Nottingham Forest · Team Shots on Target
51.4%
6
Over 5.5 (6+)Liverpool · Team Corners
51.2%
7
Over 10.5 (11+)Liverpool · Team Fouls
51.1%
Not bookmaker odds.
The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.
Your bet. Our intelligence.
Pick the outcomes you like.
Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.
Strong signalsxGorithm View
1X2Match market
BTTSMatch market
Double ChanceMatch market
Draw No BetMatch market
Match CardsMatch market
Match CornersMatch market
Total GoalsMatch market
LiverpoolTeam Cards
LiverpoolTeam Corners
LiverpoolTeam Fouls
LiverpoolTeam Goals
LiverpoolTeam Shots
LiverpoolTeam Shots on Target
Nottingham ForestTeam Cards
Nottingham ForestTeam Corners
Nottingham ForestTeam Fouls
Nottingham ForestTeam Goals
Nottingham ForestTeam Shots
Nottingham ForestTeam Shots on Target
Cody GakpoPlayer Fouls
Cody GakpoPlayer Fouls Won
Cody GakpoPlayer Passes
Cody GakpoPlayer Shots
Cody GakpoPlayer SOT
Cody GakpoPlayer Tackles
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer Fouls
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer Fouls Won
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer Passes
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer Shots
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer SOT
Dominik SzoboszlaiPlayer Tackles
Matz SelsGoalkeeper Saves
Matz SelsPlayer Fouls
Matz SelsPlayer Fouls Won
Matz SelsPlayer Passes
Matz SelsPlayer Shots
Matz SelsPlayer SOT
Virgil van DijkPlayer Fouls
Virgil van DijkPlayer Fouls Won
Virgil van DijkPlayer Passes
Virgil van DijkPlayer Shots
Virgil van DijkPlayer SOT
Virgil van DijkPlayer Tackles
Your selections0 legs
—
ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY
Select a leg to start building.
Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.