EARLY VIEW · LINEUPS PENDINGPlayer markets remain provisional
UpdatedLatest production refresh
Match ProbabilityxGorithm model
34.1%Tottenham
29.2%Draw
36.7%Newcastle United
Model Expected Goals
xG = Expected Goals. It estimates the quality of scoring chances a team is expected to create. It is not a score prediction.
1.314Tottenham
–
1.376Newcastle United
The xGorithm View
Strong model signals for this fixture.
Curated by the frozen xGorithm View engine from the current production probabilities.
Total Goals Under 3.5
Total Goals Model
71.6%
Why the model likes it: Compact Goals Intensity v2 + Team Strength v2 scoring share Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.
Match Cards Over 2.5 (3+)
Match Cards Model
79.0%
Why the model likes it: Gate 4 SEASON_MATCHUP_POISSON combined cards Evidence sample: 39 subject / 39 opponent.
Percentages shown are xGorithm model probabilities, not bookmaker implied probabilities. Bookmaker prices will appear separately once connected.
Game Profile
Headline leans
Goals
Over 1.5 (2+)
75.0%
BTTS
No strong lean
Corners
Over 8.5 (9+)
71.5%
Cards
Over 2.5 (3+)
79.0%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
73.1%
Over 0.5 (1+)73.1%
Over 1.5 (2+)37.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)14.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
80.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)97.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)91.5%
Over 3.5 (4+)80.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)65.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)48.0%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
88.2%
Over 0.5 (1+)88.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)63.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)36.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)16.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)
Team Shots
70.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)98.1%
Over 7.5 (8+)96.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)92.3%
Over 9.5 (10+)86.7%
Over 10.5 (11+)79.2%
Over 11.5 (12+)70.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)59.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)48.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)38.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)28.7%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
82.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)82.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)65.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)46.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)29.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
82.8%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)73.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)62.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)51.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)39.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)29.2%
Over 14.5 (15+)20.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
74.7%
Over 0.5 (1+)74.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)40.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)16.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
72.0%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.6%
Over 2.5 (3+)86.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)72.0%
Over 4.5 (5+)54.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)36.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)15.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
71.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)93.9%
Over 7.5 (8+)88.5%
Over 8.5 (9+)80.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)71.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)59.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)47.8%
Over 12.5 (13+)36.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)26.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)18.3%
Over 15.5 (16+)12.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
76.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)91.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)76.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)57.3%
Over 4.5 (5+)37.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)22.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.4%
Over 7.5 (8+)83.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)50.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.3%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.8%
Team Intelligence
Full supported ladders
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
73.1%
Over 0.5 (1+)73.1%
Over 1.5 (2+)37.8%
Over 2.5 (3+)14.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
80.4%
Over 1.5 (2+)97.5%
Over 2.5 (3+)91.5%
Over 3.5 (4+)80.4%
Over 4.5 (5+)65.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)48.0%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
88.2%
Over 0.5 (1+)88.2%
Over 1.5 (2+)63.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)36.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)16.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)
Team Shots
70.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)98.1%
Over 7.5 (8+)96.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)92.3%
Over 9.5 (10+)86.7%
Over 10.5 (11+)79.2%
Over 11.5 (12+)70.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)59.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)48.7%
Over 14.5 (15+)38.2%
Over 15.5 (16+)28.7%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
82.6%
Over 1.5 (2+)93.9%
Over 2.5 (3+)82.6%
Over 3.5 (4+)65.7%
Over 4.5 (5+)46.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)29.7%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
82.8%
Over 7.5 (8+)89.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)82.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)73.5%
Over 10.5 (11+)62.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)51.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)39.6%
Over 13.5 (14+)29.2%
Over 14.5 (15+)20.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Goals
74.7%
Over 0.5 (1+)74.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)40.0%
Over 2.5 (3+)16.1%
Over 3.5 (4+)
Team Corners
72.0%
Over 1.5 (2+)95.6%
Over 2.5 (3+)86.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)72.0%
Over 4.5 (5+)54.1%
Over 5.5 (6+)36.6%
Over 0.5 (1+)
Team Cards
87.3%
Over 0.5 (1+)87.3%
Over 1.5 (2+)61.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)34.0%
Over 3.5 (4+)15.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)
Team Shots
71.0%
Over 6.5 (7+)93.9%
Over 7.5 (8+)88.5%
Over 8.5 (9+)80.8%
Over 9.5 (10+)71.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)59.6%
Over 11.5 (12+)47.8%
Over 12.5 (13+)36.5%
Over 13.5 (14+)26.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)18.3%
Over 15.5 (16+)12.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)
Team Shots on Target
76.7%
Over 1.5 (2+)91.1%
Over 2.5 (3+)76.7%
Over 3.5 (4+)57.3%
Over 4.5 (5+)37.8%
Over 5.5 (6+)22.0%
Over 8.5 (9+)
Team Fouls
74.4%
Over 7.5 (8+)83.9%
Over 8.5 (9+)74.4%
Over 9.5 (10+)63.0%
Over 10.5 (11+)50.9%
Over 11.5 (12+)39.0%
Over 12.5 (13+)28.3%
Over 13.5 (14+)19.5%
Over 14.5 (15+)12.8%
Player Intelligence
Confirmed / likely starters
No eligible player intelligence.
Build
Your choice
Choose your risk
How brave are we feeling?
xGorithm finds the most credible combination of events that lands near your chosen return. Model probability first. No filler legs.
PARK THE BUS
Low risk. Keep it tidy.
2.02xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
50.4%
1
Under 3.5Total Goals
71.6%
2
Tottenham or Newcastle UnitedDouble Chance
70.8%
GAME MANAGEMENT
Controlled. A little ambition.
2.87xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
30.5%
1
Over 0.5 (1+)Newcastle United · Team Cards
87.3%
2
Under 3.5Total Goals
71.6%
3
Over 8.5 (9+)Match Corners
71.5%
4
Tottenham or Newcastle UnitedDouble Chance
70.8%
THE PRESS
Higher tempo. More moving parts.
4.75xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
17.4%
1
Under 3.5Total Goals
71.6%
2
Over 4.5 (5+)Tottenham · Team Corners
65.1%
3
Tottenham or DrawDouble Chance
63.3%
4
Over 1.5 (2+)Newcastle United · Team Cards
61.1%
ALL OUT ATTACK
Aggressive. Now we’re swinging.
9.49xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
5.5%
1
Under 3.5Total Goals
71.6%
2
Over 4.5 (5+)Tottenham · Team Corners
65.1%
3
Tottenham or DrawDouble Chance
63.3%
4
Over 1.5 (2+)Newcastle United · Team Cards
61.1%
5
Over 3.5 (4+)Match Cards
60.5%
6
Over 3.5 (4+)Newcastle United · Team Shots on Target
57.3%
THE END GAME
Big return. Everything has to click.
18.01xreturn proxy
Adjusted joint model probabilityChance of every leg landing together
3.6%
1
Newcastle United or DrawDouble Chance
65.9%
2
Over 10.5 (11+)Newcastle United · Team Fouls
50.9%
3
Under 2.5Total Goals
49.6%
4
Over 13.5 (14+)Tottenham · Team Shots
48.7%
5
Over 5.5 (6+)Tottenham · Team Corners
48.0%
Not bookmaker odds.
The return shown is the Builder engine retail-return proxy. Actual bookmaker pricing will sit beside it once connected.
Your bet. Our intelligence.
Pick the outcomes you like.
Browse the frozen model markets for this fixture and choose your own combination. Eligible player markets use the same lineup rules as Match Intelligence.
Strong signalsxGorithm View
1X2Match market
BTTSMatch market
Double ChanceMatch market
Draw No BetMatch market
Match CardsMatch market
Match CornersMatch market
Total GoalsMatch market
Newcastle UnitedTeam Cards
Newcastle UnitedTeam Corners
Newcastle UnitedTeam Fouls
Newcastle UnitedTeam Goals
Newcastle UnitedTeam Shots
Newcastle UnitedTeam Shots on Target
TottenhamTeam Cards
TottenhamTeam Corners
TottenhamTeam Fouls
TottenhamTeam Goals
TottenhamTeam Shots
TottenhamTeam Shots on Target
No eligible selections in this section.
Your selections0 legs
—
ADJUSTED JOINT MODEL PROBABILITY
Select a leg to start building.
Generated from current xGorithm production outputs. LINEUP PENDING player markets remain provisional until official team news.